Beirut-Paris

06 July 2026

Executive Summary

This report addresses  a growing legal and human rights gap toward  official European discourse increasingly oriented towards accelerating the return of Syrian refugees, and the ground conditions  in Syria that still  exhibit most of the risk factors that led to the original wave of displacement. The fall of the Assad regime is presented in European political circles as grounds to reclassify  Syria as a safe country of origin.  Documented field conditions offer no support for this: retaliatory violence and arbitrary detention persist, and the no  judicial or institutional framework exists to protect  returnees. This is compounded by persistent economic instability and the continued deterioration of public services, leaving even the most basic conditions for sustainable living unattainable across much of the country.

This report demonstrates that this trajectory is not an incidental  but a deliberate political construction shaped by two converging forces: the rise of the far right and the diffusion of its discourse into mainstream political parties, which have together reordered European policy priorities; and the consolidation of that shift in the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, which has  introduced accelerated border screening procedures and expanded return mechanisms. The core legal tension this report identifies is self-generated by the European order itself.Case law from the   Court of Justice of the European Union and the European Court of Human Rights establishes a robust framework prohibiting the return of individuals to countries where a real risk of torture or inhuman treatment persists, irrespective of the individual’s legal status; this  prohibition that remains absolute until  the receiving environment meets the requisite conditions of safety. The report argues that European return policies, by presuming the cessation of risk without conducting rigorous individual assessments of actual security and economic conditions, activate framework. What in many cases amounts to accelerated “constructive refoulement” becomes a potential violation of obligations owed to individuals under European and international law. 

The report accordingly calls for an approach that treats “return” as an option contingent on the right conditions; not  an absolute policy priority; and one that accounts for  economic conditions inside Syria, recognises that a substantial proportion of Syrians in Europe are already genuinely integrated into their host societies, and ensures that future policy positions are grounded in a more balanced framework that respects international protection standards and fundamental human rights obligations.

Methodology

This study employs a qualitative legal research methodology integrating  theoretical legal analysis with empirical data derived from fieldwork. The legal dimension is grounded in a comprehensive framework analysis in  the EU asylum and migration system, encompassing relevant regulations, policy documents, and judicial interpretations issued within the EU legal order. Particular attention is paid to official instruments, judgments, and decisions available through EU institutional platforms, which serve as  authoritative references for the interpretation and application of asylum standards within the European legal system.

In addition, the report incorporates qualitative interviews conducted with three Syrian refugees who had submitted asylum applications in various European countries and whose applications were subsequently rejected after the regime’s collapse, as well as an interview with a Syrian activist specialising in migration and asylum affairs, conducted the aim to obtain  a more precise and objective account of the social and legal conditions of Syrians across several  European countries. These interviews complement the legal analysis by providing testimonies and lived experiences connected to asylum procedures, particularly regarding  procedural fairness, the assessment of protection needs, and the perceived barriers within national and European asylum systems. Together, the legal analysis and qualitative data link normative legal frameworks to their practical implications for the individuals concerned. 

Introduction

Recent years have witnessed profound transformations in asylum and migration policy within the European Union, with particularly significant consequences for Syrian refugees, who have constituted one of the largest groups of international protection seekers in Europe since the outbreak of the conflict in Syria in 2011Recent years have witnessed profound transformations in asylum and migration policy within the European Union, with particularly significant consequences for Syrian refugees, who have constituted one of the largest groups of international protection seekers in Europe since the conflict in Syria began in 2011. Initially grounded in the principles of international protection and the obligations of the 1951 Geneva Conventions, the European Convention on Human Rights, and EU asylum legislation, the European Union has seen the contours of this approach shift over the past decade. This shift has coincided with the rise of populist discourse, the growing influence of far-right parties, and intensifying domestic political pressure linked to migration, integration, and security concerns — pressures which have left a visible imprint on public policy and official rhetoric towards refugees.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December  2024 constituted a watershed moment in the European debate over the future of protection for Syrians. Several Member States swiftly moved to reassess existing protection statuses, suspend or review pending asylum applications, and introduce legislative measures premised on the assumption that the political transformation in Syria automatically justified relaxing protection standards and expanding return policies, on the grounds that the conditions that had driven Syrians to seek international protection had ceased to exist. That assumption, however, has increasingly been manifested in European policies and practices that raise fundamental legal and human rights questions: whether it rests on an objective and durable assessment of conditions on the ground, and whether it is consistent with the foundational principles of international refugee law.

This report proceeds from a central research question: to what extent do current political and legislative changes within the European Union conform to the binding legal obligations of Member States under EU and international law? To answer this, the report tracks ongoing developments across Europe regarding Syrian refugees, including the persistent political and security instability in Syria and the absence of sufficient institutional and judicial safeguards to protect returnees’ rights. It draws on field data and witness testimonies indicating that the factors giving rise to protection needs have not entirely ceased, and that serious risks continue to threaten certain demographics of Syrians inside the country, such as arbitrary detention, the absence of effective legal protection, and deteriorating living conditions.

The report further seeks to analyse the widening gap between a political discourse calling for reduced protection and promoted return, and a legal and humanitarian reality that continues, for a considerable number of Syrians, to impose an ongoing need for protection. To this end, the report examines the constitutional and legislative framework governing the European asylum system and the role played by the European judiciary, including the Court of Justice of the European Union and the European Court of Human Rights, in upholding asylum and refugee law. It also analyses how the rise of the far right has shaped legislative and policy orientations, drawing on the experiences of Germany and Sweden as case studies illustrating the transition from reception policies to reassessment and return policies. In parallel, the report assesses current conditions in Syria based on available field data, to expose the assumptions underpinning European return policies and identifying the risks and violations to which returnees may be exposed. Within this framework, the report does not aim to evaluate changes in Syria in and of themselves, but rather to assess their implications for the rights of Syrian refugees and the obligations of European states towards them, proceeding from the foundational principle that the cessation of protection cannot be grounded in political assumption alone, but must be based on an individualised and rigorous assessment of objective facts that respects the principle of non-refoulement and the fundamental rights guaranteed by EU and international law.

To read the full report, please download it or visit the report page: